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UNDRAFTED

Louisville Sets Their Sites on Indy

The most impressive thing about Louisville this season has been its explosiveness, scoring in just 2 games 3 separate 70+ yard Touchdowns. Two of which have come from standout RB Jawhar Jordan.

Tale of the tape -


Louisville brings its brand new high powered offense (Avg, 47.5 PPG) into a neutral site matchup against an Indiana team that looks to be playing some really good ball on the defensive side (Allowing 15 PPG)


The most impressive thing about Louisville this season has been its explosiveness, scoring in just 2 games 3 separate 70+ yard Touchdowns. Two of which have come from standout RB Jawhar Jordan.  Jordan right now through 2 games only has 14 carries and has already amassed 231 yards and 3 TDs.


The passing game for Louisville has been up and down. Jake Plummer has thrown for exactly 247 through both contests, but has turned the ball over in some curious ways. Indiana having so far an incredible year defensively against the pass might prove to be a little tough for Plummer to weave his way through the air, standing currently at 11th in the nation allowing 129 Passing YPG.


Indiana has already had one incredibly tough test against The Ohio State Buckeyes in week 1, only allowing 23 points and holding 1st round prospects Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka to a combined 5 catches for 34 yards. They allowed 143 total yards on the ground that day, and could not find any offense of their own, scoring only 3 points.


The following week in their home opener against Indiana State, the Hoosiers held the Sycamores to 21 passing yards as a team on only 11 attempts and 72 yards on the ground. The offense seemed a bit more fluid in Tayven Jackson’s first career start, the Tennessee Volunteers transfer went 18/21 and had 236 yards, scoring a touchdown on the ground en route to a 41-7 victory for Indiana.


Key Players to Watch -


Jawhar Jordan, RB, UL


As mentioned earlier, Jordan has been electric through 2 games on the year, but that's not where this trend stops.Starting week 9 of the 2022 season, Jordan has been lights out, averaging 112.2 rushing yards per game in his last 7 starts. He already has 2 70+ Yard scores this season, and a third called back due to a holding call 20 yards behind the play. If he gets the ball in his hands, lookout. Against a pass defense that could prove stingy, they could look to get Jordan to get out the gates quickly.


Tayven Jackson, QB, IU


The Freshman transfer from Tennessee looked confident and poised in his first career start last week. He only threw 3 incompletions and only ran the ball a few times but looked good doing it, finding the endzone in the first quarter on a 10 yard score. Louisville defensively has been up and it's been down so far in its 2 contests, but the one thing of note is that in 2 games they have allowed 18 carries for 84 yards on QB rush attempts this season, including sacks. Indiana is only allowing 1 sack per game against Louisville who has fallen from grace on its front 7, sitting at 106th in the nation in sacks per game and 104th in TFLs per game. This could be a good game for Jackson to gain some yards on his feet.


Jamari Thrash, WR, UL


I know we have went over how good the Louisville run game is, and how good the Indiana pass defense is, but I would be doing a disservice to the people if I did not tell them to keep their eyes on #1. Thrash is legit as they come, and has game breaking speed. In two games, Thrash has emerged himself as the clear choice for being the guy the offense wants to get in rhythm. Against Georgia Tech, when they fell back, they looked to get him the ball, having 7 catches for 88 yards and 2 scores. One week later, it took him 1 touch to go 72 yards to paydirt. Indiana has had success defending the pass so far this season, but the screens and quick throws to thrash could spell disaster if they let him get open field.


Game Prediction -


Overall, I think Louisville’s run game is the real deal, and Indiana’s pass defense will be a little bit more exposed this game due to the explosiveness of the Louisville offense. I look for the game to be within 2 scores for a good majority of the game, if not all of it. My prediction for the outcome of this one is


Louisville - 30 Indiana - 17


Props to Watch -


Jawhar Jordan over 59.5 rushing yards (-114) - 


Shouldn't be a surprise at all that I am keeping an eye on this one if you have been reading up to this point. Jordan has surpassed this total in 7 straight games, and 2 times this season in one play. Louisville currently is averaging nearly 300 rushing yards per game (285.5 RYPG) and I have a hard time thinking they won't have to turn to the run multiple times this game. I have an even harder time believing Jordan will not at least break one 30+ yard run and get half his total in one play, if not all of it.


Game total under 50.5 (-110) - 


If Indiana’s defense shows up the way they have the first 2 weeks of the season, this game might barely break 40 points. If their offense shows up the way it did against Ohio State, the game may barely break 30. I believe both teams will find decent offensive success, but with Louisville relying on the run game, and a running clock, I like this game to come just short of the 51 points it needs to reach the over. Indiana does not turn the ball over much, so Louisville should not get many short fields. I expect long drives from the Cardinals, with 1 or 2 explosive plays and not much offense from the Hoosiers.


Jake Plummer Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-114) - 


This is a play based off the continued game script I believe the game to follow. Cardinals take advantage of a weaker run defense, to avoid their strong pass defense. Against 2 much worse secondaries, Plummer has not hit the 250 mark and is almost a lock to turn the ball over at some point, cutting a drive short and costing some yards. Against Georgia Tech he completed 58% of his passes, throwing the ball 31 times and did not reach 251 on a game script that called for 48% of the plays to be a passing play. I think Louisville will have a strong lead late, and will continue to rely on its near top of the nation run game. I would play under here as well.

Michael Stadlman

@MikesGraffix

September 14, 2023 at 12:00:00 AM

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